‘Likely Democratic’: Why analysts predict a Shomari Figures win in Alabama’s 2nd district

Alabama is not considered a swing state, and Republican Donald Trump is anticipated to secure a substantial victory over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in next week’s election. However, all eyes are on the contest in Alabama's 2nd congressional district, where Democrat Shomari Figures faces Republican Caroleene Dobson. This seat, held by Republicans since 2010, was redrawn last year following federal court intervention, giving Black voters a more competitive opportunity to elect a candidate of their choice.

### Key Insights for the Congressional Race

**National Pundits Label It "Likely Democratic"**  

Experts have long categorized this race as "likely Democratic." While not guaranteed, this designation suggests that Figures is favored to win. If Dobson prevails, it could signal a troubling night for Democrats overall, according to Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. He noted, “If Democrats lost AL-2, it would imply that Republicans are doing well nationwide.” The Cook Political Report also rates the race as likely Democratic, boasting a 97% success rate for similar ratings since 1984.

**Fundraising and Support**  

Figures has significantly outpaced Dobson in fundraising and recently attracted support from prominent national Democratic figures, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who will campaign with him shortly. Figures argues that the newly drawn district has historically favored Democrats, although he acknowledged that Republican Gov. Kay Ivey won more votes there in 2022 during her re-election.

**Turnout Factors**  

Overall turnout in Alabama’s 2022 midterms was just 38%, compared to over 62% in the 2020 presidential election. U.S. Rep. Terri Sewell emphasized the importance of voter mobilization, stating, “This is our seat. We need to ensure Figures is in Congress. We have to vote.”

**Dobson’s Campaign**  

Dobson’s campaign has also gained traction, with her team claiming to have built a strong grassroots network. Drew Dickson, a spokesperson for her campaign, stated, “Caroleene has run a tireless campaign that should show results on Election Day.” They remain optimistic that their efforts will lead to victory.

### The Biden Effect

Some analysts believe that with Kamala Harris on the ticket, Democratic turnout could be bolstered compared to a Biden-led campaign. Erin Covey from Cook Political Report noted that concerns about low Black turnout under Biden could be alleviated with Harris as the nominee. She added that the lack of significant spending by major House Super PACs in this race suggests it is not viewed as fully competitive.

As Election Day approaches, Figures is still favored, but the dynamics in Alabama’s 2nd district will be closely watched, particularly given the new electoral landscape and demographic shifts.