The Truth Behind College Football’s Most Overrated Teams

It’s that time of year again when the final preseason poll is out, and with it comes the inevitable debate: Which teams are getting too much love before a single down has been played?

Clemson, once a powerhouse in college football, now finds itself at the top of a less flattering list—one of the most overrated teams in recent years. According to data from STASSEN.com, the Tigers have consistently underperformed compared to their preseason AP poll rankings. Over the last five seasons, Clemson has dropped an average of 11 spots from its preseason ranking to where it actually finished, including a 14-spot plunge just last year.

This decline is a stark contrast to the team that once dominated the college football landscape with six consecutive playoff appearances and two national titles between 2015 and 2020. Back then, Clemson either met or exceeded its preseason expectations, but those days seem distant now.

Yet Clemson isn’t alone in the world of overhyped teams. USC holds the dubious title of the most overrated team in the modern era, suffering a net loss of 148 ranking spots over 34 seasons. The Trojans’ dramatic fall from grace last year—19 spots down—was the worst in the country and enough to surpass another historically overestimated team, the Texas Longhorns.

Texas, ranked No. 4 in this year’s preseason poll, managed to defy expectations last year by gaining seven spots by the end of the season. However, this came after a four-year streak where the Longhorns collectively lost 39.5 spots in the rankings. Historically, Texas hasn’t fared well when highly ranked, as seen in 2010 when they started at No. 5 and ended the season unranked with a 5-7 record.

On the flip side, Washington State has been the most underrated team since 1989, gaining 79 positions overall. Despite this, the Cougars didn’t even receive a single vote in this year’s preseason poll, reflecting the ever-changing landscape of college football.

Ole Miss, another SEC team, has overachieved in two of the last three seasons under head coach Lane Kiffin. They climbed 11 spots last year and 15 in 2021, highlighting their ability to exceed expectations. However, Kiffin also holds an unenviable record for guiding USC to the most significant drop in modern history—from preseason No. 1 to unranked in 2012.

Washington, led by former Alabama offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer, has also seen significant jumps, moving up 10 spots last year and 18 the year before. In contrast, Alabama under Nick Saban has remained remarkably steady, with minimal fluctuations in rankings and four national titles to show for it since 2009.

Auburn, however, has been a rollercoaster of unpredictability. Though unranked this year, the Tigers have seen wild swings in recent seasons, including drops of 18 spots in 2018, 19 in 2015, and 17 in 2014. Yet, they also achieved remarkable climbs, like the 24-spot leap in 2013 that nearly won them a national title.

The last few seasons have been particularly rough for preseason polls. In 2021, ten teams dropped at least 10 spots from their preseason rankings, while another nine teams gained at least 10 positions. A year later, eight teams experienced double-digit swings both up and down.

These fluctuations remind us that preseason rankings are far from perfect. While the top teams often remain consistent, the road to a national championship is unpredictable. Georgia, this year’s preseason No. 1, might seem like a safe bet, but history suggests otherwise. Only two preseason No. 1 teams have won the national title since 2000—Alabama in 2017 and USC in 2004.

As we head into the 2024 season with a sense of fresh possibilities and the unknown impact of the upcoming 12-team playoff format, one thing is clear: Betting on preseason rankings can be risky. And if you’re looking for a team to fade, Clemson might just be your best bet.