Nate Silver lists 4 ‘huge mistakes’ so far for Trump campaign

Pollster Nate Silver took to X to highlight what he sees as four major missteps by the Trump campaign, with the former president's debate performance on Tuesday night being one of them.

According to Silver, the first significant error was Trump’s selection of Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate. The second mistake was a “meandering campaign speech” that missed a “moment of goodwill.” The third was the campaign’s lack of preparation for the “Harris swap,” referring to the debate format change. Finally, Silver criticized Trump’s debate performance, noting that he appeared “clearly unprepared and/or incapable of maintaining his A-game.”

In a subsequent post, Silver also suggested that Trump’s acceptance of an “early Biden debate” in June could be considered another blunder. At the time, the rationale was that an earlier debate would give both Trump and President Biden a chance to recover from poor performances and showcase their mental acuity.

Trump's campaign, however, characterized the debate performance differently. In a statement to The Hill, co-managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles described Trump’s performance as “masterful,” criticizing Vice President Kamala Harris's record and claiming it resonated with voters.

Since Vance was added to the ticket in June, there has been speculation that Trump may regret the choice. LaCivita dismissed these rumors on Fox News Radio, asserting that Vance has been an excellent partner and that the speculation is “fake news.”

Trump’s acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention in July, which was the longest in history, received some criticism. Trump has also publicly expressed frustration about the debate switch from Biden to Harris on Truth Social.

A CNN flash poll found that a majority of viewers believed Harris won the debate, with 63 percent supporting her performance compared to 37 percent for Trump. Silver’s forecast model, the Silver Bulletin, showed Harris leading Trump by just over 2 percentage points, with nearly 49 percent for Harris and almost 47 percent for Trump as of Tuesday.

Updated at 1:03 p.m. EDT

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