Cook shifts 5 House races toward Democrats

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted five House races toward Democrats, indicating growing momentum for the party in the Midwest.

In Iowa, two races have entered toss-up territory, as Democrats aim to unseat Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) in the 1st Congressional District and Rep. Zach Nunn (R) in the 3rd. Cook's analysis describes Miller-Meeks as a "uniquely weak" incumbent and highlights the strong fundraising efforts of Nunn's Democratic challenger.

These Iowa races are part of just 25 toss-up races nationwide, with both parties vying for control of the House.

In Illinois and Indiana, contests involving two Democratic incumbents have shifted from “lean” to “likely” blue. Rep. Eric Sorensen (D) is seeking reelection in Illinois's 17th District, while Rep. Frank J. Mrvan (D) competes in Indiana’s 1st District. Cook notes that Vice President Harris is poised to secure both districts “by a healthy margin,” benefiting Democrats downballot.

Meanwhile, the race for Rep. Ryan Zinke's seat in Montana's 1st District has moved from “likely” to “lean” Republican. Zinke's challenger, Democrat Monica Tranel, narrowly missed an upset in the midterms. Although Zinke still leads in fundraising, recent polling indicates a closer race than expected. A victory here could bolster Montana Democrats as they work to defend vulnerable Sen. Jon Tester (D).

These latest updates follow Cook's prior adjustments, which moved six races toward Democrats and two toward Republicans last month, with 15 toss-up contests for seats held by Republicans and 11 for seats held by Democrats.

With a slim Republican majority in the House, Democrats need to net only four seats to gain control this fall.

A forecast model from Decision Desk HQ gives Republicans a 71 percent chance of winning the Senate, but only a 55 percent chance of retaining the House.

In the presidential race, Harris and former President Trump are in a tight contest. Recent polling averages from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill show Harris leading by about 3 points nationwide, with 50 percent support to Trump’s 47 percent, and both candidates closely matched in key battlegrounds.