Kamala Harris Emerges as New Favorite in Presidential Betting Odds, Trump’s Chances Decline

In a significant shift in the race for the White House, Vice President Kamala Harris has overtaken former President Donald Trump as the betting favorite to win the upcoming presidential election. This marks the first time Harris has led the odds since President Joe Biden exited the race on July 21, endorsing her candidacy.

Harris now holds a 50.5% probability of winning the presidency, translating to a -102 favorite, according to data from electionbettingodds.com. This site compiles live betting odds from multiple sources, including FTX.com, Betfair.com, PredictIt.org, Smarkets.com, and Polymarket.com.

Conversely, Trump’s odds have dropped to 47.1%, or +112, a notable decline from his previous peak of 67.9% following a failed assassination attempt on July 13.

London-based Betfair Exchange also reflects this trend, with Harris emerging as the even-money favorite and Trump positioned as a +108 underdog.

Political betting expert Paul Krishnamurty from Betfair Exchange commented on the tight race, stating, "Kamala Harris has maintained her new status as the favorite for the second consecutive day, but the margin between her and Donald Trump is razor-thin and could shift rapidly. While Harris has gained significant momentum since Biden’s withdrawal, it is too early to consider this a definitive trend."

Krishnamurty also pointed out that Harris’s rise in the odds is partly due to the increased media attention following Biden’s exit. He noted that the Democratic nomination will likely dominate the news cycle throughout August, with Harris's performance in the first TV debate on September 10 being a critical factor.

Harris has also become the new favorite at BetOnline, an offshore sportsbook that operates outside U.S. regulations. Dave Mason, BetOnline's brand manager, highlighted the shift on X (formerly Twitter), stating, "Good news for Trump fans: you can now bet on Trump at +100 (even) with a maximum of $10,000. The bad news: Kamala Harris is now the -110 favorite."

Mason disclosed that BetOnline received a $10,076 bet on Harris at -105 and $953 at -110, followed by a $10,000 wager on Trump at +100.

In betting terms, a negative number indicates how much a bettor needs to wager to win $100, while a positive number shows the potential winnings on a $100 bet. At the current BetOnline odds, a bettor would need to stake $110 to win $100 on Harris. In contrast, a $100 bet on Trump would yield $100 in winnings.

It's important to note that betting on political outcomes is not allowed at U.S. sportsbooks. Responding to claims on social media that the election might be rigged, Mason replied, "Then bet $11,000 to win $10,000 on the rigged side."