Democrats grow more optimistic about flipping Florida

Democrats are growing increasingly hopeful about their prospects in Florida’s presidential and Senate races, with recent polls indicating a tighter race in a state that has leaned Republican in recent years.

On Monday, a Morning Consult poll showed Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump by just 2 points in Florida. Similarly, a poll from The Hill and Emerson College last week found former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) trailing Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) by only 1 point, compared to a 4- to 5-point gap in other recent polls.

Democrats believe that two upcoming ballot measures in Florida—Amendment 4, which aims to enshrine abortion rights, and Amendment 3, which seeks to legalize recreational marijuana—will boost their voter turnout in this election year.

“It’s all part of the same narrative,” said Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party. “The need for an abortion amendment arose because Republicans have pushed the state in an extreme direction.”

Fried also suggested that voter fatigue with Trump is contributing to a shift in momentum towards Harris. “People are just tired of the chaos, the spectacle, and the rhetoric,” she said. “This is reflected in the growing support for Kamala Harris.”

Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign is framing her as a fresh alternative in a state where Republicans have dominated. Her campaign has focused on attacking Scott over issues like abortion access, Social Security, and Medicare. “There’s a lot of energy and hope in Florida,” said Lauren Chou, Mucarsel-Powell’s communications director. “Having fresh leadership is resonating with voters.”

In response, Harris’s campaign has invested heavily in Florida, particularly on the issue of abortion. The campaign recently launched the “Reproductive Rights for All” bus tour in Palm Beach, featuring Mucarsel-Powell and several national Democrats. Second gentleman Doug Emhoff is also scheduled to campaign in Florida following Tuesday’s presidential debate as part of the “New Way Forward” tour.

However, skepticism remains about whether Democrats can secure wins in Florida. Despite Republican challenges nationwide in the 2022 midterms, the party made significant gains in the Sunshine State.

“Florida has changed drastically from the days when Barack Obama narrowly won here in 2012,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell, pointing to the Republican party’s nearly 1 million-voter registration advantage. While Republicans recognize that the abortion and marijuana measures may increase turnout, they argue that Florida voters often support liberal ballot measures while electing Republican officials. Both measures require 60 percent approval to pass, necessitating support from a broad range of voters.

Trump and Scott have differing views on the ballot measures; Trump supports Amendment 3 but opposes Amendment 4, while Scott is against both.

Recent poll numbers reflect the narrow margins of past statewide victories. Trump won Florida by about 3 points in 2020 and by 1 point in 2016, while Scott won his 2018 Senate race by less than a point and his two gubernatorial races by under 2 points.

“Rick Scott has a proven track record of winning tight races in Florida,” O’Connell said.

Trump campaign senior adviser Brian Hughes emphasized, “Florida is Trump country,” and suggested that voters are ready to return Trump and Scott to office, rejecting the Biden-Harris agenda.

Scott’s campaign adviser, Chris Hartline, criticized Mucarsel-Powell for her support of the Biden administration, arguing that it will not resonate with Florida voters.

In an interview with NewsNation, Scott expressed confidence in his and Trump’s performance in Florida, attributing it to voter dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration. Hartline also highlighted the GOP’s growing influence in Miami-Dade County, traditionally a Democratic stronghold.

A recent GOP poll showed Harris and Trump tied at 47 percent in Miami-Dade County, with 6 percent undecided. However, Democrats are also optimistic about their prospects in the county, with some internal polls showing Harris leading.

Christian Ulvert, a Democratic strategist, noted that national trends favoring Democrats and a rejection of Trump’s campaign are evident in Florida. “The mobilization of campaigns here is strategic and could be decisive as we approach the distribution of vote-by-mail ballots,” Ulvert said.