The battle of Kursk has unchained Ukraine from a failing war strategy

Ukraine was facing the daunting reality of gradually losing ground to larger Russian forces. However, its recent offensive into the Russian region of Kursk has shifted the momentum in its favor. This move has allowed Ukraine to present "dilemmas the Russians must solve," according to an expert.

In early August, Ukraine appeared doomed to a defensive stance, being gradually pushed back by relentless Russian assaults. But the successful Kursk offensive has not only captured 480 square miles of Russian territory and embarrassed President Putin, but it has also enabled Ukraine to seize the initiative and put Moscow on the defensive.

Ukraine faced a strategic choice: either bolster its defenses in the east to resist ongoing Russian attacks in Donetsk or launch an offensive in the northeast towards Kursk. George Barros, a Russian military expert with the US-based Institute for the Study of War, told Business Insider that historians will debate whether the resources used in the Kursk campaign could have been more effectively deployed in the east. Barros emphasized that while there are valid discussions on this topic, the key principle of warfare is to avoid passivity and continuous defense. By contesting the initiative, Ukraine has shifted the strategic dynamic, with Russia no longer holding the upper hand across the entire theater as it did for much of the previous year.

Barros previously advised that Ukraine needed to regain the initiative to keep Russia off-balance and prevent Moscow from concentrating overwhelming force at its discretion. Instead of committing to a single major offensive—like the unsuccessful one in 2023—Barros suggested a series of smaller, targeted offensives to weaken Russian lines over time.

While it's too early to fully assess the Kursk operation’s success, it likely hasn't caused crippling losses for Russia or forced the Kremlin to cease its Donetsk offensive. However, it has embarrassed Putin and disrupted the perceived security of Russia, compelling Russian commanders to engage in improvised tactics they find challenging. This operation could also serve as leverage in future negotiations if Ukraine can hold its gains.

Current indications suggest that Ukraine might focus on consolidating its position in Kursk rather than expanding further. This presents a challenge for Kyiv, which must balance maintaining its foothold in Kursk with defending crucial areas like Kharkiv and the southern regions. Ukraine will need to find a cost-effective strategy to continue applying pressure on Russia without further territorial losses.

Barros noted that while Ukraine holds the initiative in the north, Russia retains control in the east and south. To sustain this initiative, Ukraine must keep attacking either in Kursk or other parts of the front, creating challenges for Russian forces. This will require time, manpower, additional artillery ammunition, and potentially looser rules of engagement to use advanced battlefield rockets like ATACMS against Russian positions.

The Kursk attack has already complicated Russia’s strategic calculations. Until now, Russia has not been compelled to strongly defend much of the 600-mile front, allowing it to concentrate forces in key areas like Donetsk. If the Kursk operation forces Russia to deploy significant resources defensively, it will be considered a notable success.

"The next Ukrainian move remains uncertain," Barros said. "There are numerous unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian attacks across the theater, from Polohy on the Zaporizhia line to near Zabrama and Belgorod. This ongoing activity is keeping the Russian command in a state of alert."