Harris vs. Trump: Poll Shows Significant Shift in 2024 Presidential Race

A new poll reveals a noteworthy shift in the 2024 presidential race. Conducted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst from July 29 to August 1, the survey indicates that 43% of respondents now favor presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, compared to 40% who support former President Donald Trump. This marks a 7-point shift towards Harris from a January 2024 poll where Trump led President Joe Biden by 39% to 36%.

“Harris’s entry into the race has significantly altered the dynamics,” said Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “While Trump was previously seen as the front-runner over Biden, Harris now holds a slight edge. This change seems to stem from substantial shifts among young voters, African Americans, Latinx Americans, and moderates towards Harris.”

Rhodes added, “The 2024 election remains highly competitive, but the race is markedly different from just a month ago.”

Among Trump supporters, 75% cite his first-term achievements as their primary reason for backing him, while 48% believe he will restore America’s greatness. Additionally, 27% each consider him the best president ever or support him because he is the Republican nominee. Conversely, 66% of Trump opponents view him as a threat to America, with 41% attributing responsibility for the January 6 insurrection to him.

For Harris supporters, 66% are drawn to her representation of a new generation, 37% believe she will enhance America’s global standing, and 27% support her as the Democratic nominee. On the other hand, 77% of those not supporting Harris think she would continue Biden’s policies, with 49% concerned she might weaken America’s global position.

In terms of issue handling, Trump scores highest on the economy, taxes, crime, immigration (all at 53%), the Israel-Hamas War (54%), and the Ukraine-Russia War (52%). Harris excels in reproductive rights (61%), climate change (60%), healthcare (58%), and education (56%).

The poll surveyed 1,000 participants nationwide and has a margin of error of 3.8%.