Harris vs. Trump: Latest Presidential Polls Show a Tightening Race

The competition for the White House is intensifying as Vice President Kamala Harris, the leading Democratic candidate, closes the gap with former President Donald Trump in the latest polls.

Following President Joe Biden's recent decision to exit the race and ahead of the upcoming Democratic National Convention, polling averages from the Cotton State Chronicle indicate Harris has garnered 46.5% support among voters, while Trump holds a slight lead at 47.6%. On July 21, when Biden announced his withdrawal, Harris polled at 45.7% compared to Trump’s 48%.

These figures represent an average of 95% of all national polls tracked by the Cotton State Chronicle.

A Tightening Contest

Even polls showing Trump with a considerable lead reflect a narrowing race.

A Rasmussen poll conducted between July 24-25 and 28-31, surveying 2,163 likely voters, found that 49% favored Trump compared to 44% for Harris. Four percent indicated they would vote for another candidate, while 2% were undecided. Just a week earlier, Trump led Harris by 7 points in the same poll. This poll has a margin of error of plus/minus 2 percentage points.

Another poll by BigDataPoll, conducted July 28-30 among 3,097 registered voters, shows Trump ahead by 1.2 percentage points, with 46.7% to Harris's 45.5%, and 7.8% undecided. The margin of error for this poll is plus/minus 1.8 percentage points.

Early Polls: A Word of Caution

Experts urge caution when interpreting early poll numbers.

“The race for the White House has clearly tightened from what was becoming a runaway landslide, but it’s important to consider the current political environment,” said Rich Baris, Director of BigDataPoll. “This month, Democrats were much more likely to participate in interviews than they have been in recent months, and increased enthusiasm also manifested in a higher self-reported likelihood to vote.”

“The same was true of Republicans following the attempted assassination of the former president last month,” Baris added.

Regarding specific issues, Trump scored highest in areas such as immigration and border security, abortion rights and restrictions, and the economy and jobs. Harris, while trailing Trump on most issues, received her highest scores for labor and union issues (41.9%) and threats to democracy and corruption (42.8%).